Playing Guessing Games with Date for the PS3

The two big questions surrounding Sony’s PlayStation 3 are “when?” and “how much?” Last week the consensus from analysts and developers was that Sony’s next-gen system would fall somewhere in the range of $500 (in large part thanks to its expensive …

Full Article

Following the rather muted showing at the Consumer Electronics Show and the fact that Sony had very little to say about the PS3 at the event (Sony CEO Howard Stringer talked much more about the PSP), some analysts are now beginning to question if the PS3 will even launch in North America this year, according to an article on MarketWatch. At this point, it’s fairly clear that Sony’s “Spring 2006″ date refers only to a possible Japanese debut at that time, but even that is hardly set in stone.

One of the big challenges Sony faces is being able to mass produce enough of the much-ballyhooed Cell chip. Analysts have indicated that Sony could miss its original launch window as it waits to make sure that chip yield is maximized before starting the PS3 manufacturing process. “The decision as to whether to delay the PS3 launch has yet to be made and is dependent on (improving its chip yield),” said William Drewry of Credit Suisse First Boston.

If there is a delay, however, Drewry added that he doesn’t believe it will be that long. “We view any potential delay as being one to two months rather than six months duration,” he said.

Evan Wilson, an analyst at Pacific Crest Securities, believes “the most likely scenario” is that Sony will release the PS3 this summer in Japan with a shipment of roughly 1 million units and that the U.S. would be next with a million units in November. Wilson expects the European launch to be pushed out to March 2007.

The problem right now, though, is that Sony needs to get a solid launch lineup ready for the console’s debut and as Wilson points out, “All we’ve seen are [demonstration games] running on a box supposed to be the equivalent of the PS3. We really have no idea.”

Schelley Olhava, an analyst with IDC, added, “You don’t need to come out with 20 games for a Japan launch, whereas in the U.S. your need have about 15 to 20 games, plus a few that really stand out.”

Even if the PS3 makes it out on time in the U.S. for holiday 2006, the Xbox 360 will be entering its second holiday period and will likely have a very solid group of second-generation 360 titles. The competition is bound to be fierce. Wilson said he expects the PS3 titles to be “clearly weaker than the Xbox 360 holiday 2006 line-up.”